Probability of Events in Linear Scheduling Flow



I have a syllabus which must be executed in a linear fashion.  I am trying to determine whether a 2-class flow or 3-class flow is best.  "Best" here is defined as lowest probability of having a resource overdemand on a given day.

To execute the academic schedule, we have classroom (CR) events, lab (L) events, and field trips (FT).  Each event has attrition (A).  The way it would look with the attrition on the end for a 2-class flow might be:

CR, L, L, FT, L, FT, CR, CR, CR, L, L,  L, FT, A, A, A, A
A,   A, A, FT, A, L, CR, A  , FT,  L, FT, L, L,  A, A, A, A

The attrition days could occur at any point in time along the scheduled flow, but the syllabus must still execute in a linear fashion.  I.e., you pick up where you left off after a snow day.

I have resources to allow both classes to do CR and L at the same time, but not enough busses to allow both classes to go on a field trip.

How do I determine the probability of field trips overlapping?

The same would need to work for the 3-class flow.  Obviously the data set is not accurate, but is representative of the problem.



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