Excel Statistics 63: BINOMDIST & Mean & Standard Deviation For Binomial Probability Distribution

I am trying to use the excel function BINOMDIST to calculate what the probabilities would be for each correct score in a best of 14 darts match where the match stops if a player reaches the required 8 legs.

To work out these probabilities I am using the probabilities for each player to win a single leg when they are throwing first and then multiplying this by the number of possible combinations of this particular score occuring. This part I believe I have worked out correctly. Bear in mind, for Player A to win 8-1 then player B can only win one of the first 8 legs or else Player A would have already won the match 8-0. For any novices to the game of darts each player throws first in alternate legs so we also need to take in to account the player who is throwing first, I intend to identify this by marking either cell A2 or A3 with a 1.

On the attached example I believe I have correctly formulated for Player A to win 8-0 but am struggling with the remaining scores.

Could someone have a look at the example and see if they can point me in the right direction on how to formulate these remaining probabilities.

Thanks,
Adam.

The standard deviation in "descriptive statistics" in "data analysis" is sample standard deviation not population SD. How can I get the population SD?

Greetings Power Users!

XP, Excel 2003 with stats ad in

Yes, this is an assignment AND I have the answers BUT I want to know how to get there (not wating your time). Taking online statistics and everyone in class using calculators, I am the only Excel fan.

I approach problem as BINOMDIST and cannot get answers to jive.

80% of new products fail within two years. 66 new products introduced, what is the probability that within 2 years

(a) 47 or more will fail? FALSE = PMF
(b) 58 or fewer will fail? TRUE = CUM
(c) 15 or more will succeed?
(d) fewer than 10 succeed?

Probability = .8, number of trials = 66, 2 years is a distractor, x = period:

(a) does not match key: 1-BINOMDIST(47,66,.8,FALSE)? When equal to or greater than use 1-? Should I use ((47+1),66,etc.?

(b) For fewer, should I use TRUE? Doesn't TRUE indicate value up to x?

(c) duplicate formula and conventions for (a)

(9) should be straight forward but is it TRUE?

As stated, I have the answers from the key, I just want the confirmation of the methodology OR is the answer key wrong (yes, I've seen it before)

Answer Key: (a) .9738 (b) .9599 (c) .3446 (d) .1271

I have been through the fx options for three days and I tried POISSON, and every other tab I could until I just could not syand anymore!

Thanks for your thoughts

please help me solve this problem on excel:


Suppose you bought four light bulbs. The manufacturer claims that 85% of their bulbs will last at least 700 hours. If the manufacturer is right,
a. What are the chances that all four your bulbs will last at least 700 hours?
b. That three will last 700 hours, but one will fail before that?

Hi everyone,

I have posted this question on another forum but hoped that I may be able to get a different perspective from other people.


I have been working on a problem that requires being able to calculate the chances of any winnng a series of coin tosses with a weighted coin.

The coin has for arguments sake a 65% / 35% chance of landing heads or tails and to win the game you need to hit your side 9 times.

Can you use excel to calculate things like: If heads takes the lead 1-0, what does that mean the its overall percentage chance of winning? If the score is 7-3 to tails, what are the chances of either side gaining victory? etc, etc.

I thought that there would be a way of setting up a spreadsheet that listed the goal (first to 9, 12, 15 or whatever) and below this the percentage chance of heads and the percentage chance of tails. Then somewhere would be a box to enter the current score (0-0, 3-5, 1-1 or whatever) and beside this the current chance of heads or tails gaining victory.

I've tried setting up something like this but am a bit of a dufus when it comes to knowing how, where and when to use the different functions of excel.

Would anyone be able to give me a hand in how to set up something like this?


Thanks in advance for any help.


Here is the link to the same question on another board http://www.mrexcel.com/forum/showthread.php?t=340808

I'm sure you've seen a question like this a million times, but any help for a person new to Stats is much appreciated. For this computer lab in class we received this question.

"A research team at Cornell University conudcted a study showing that approximately 10% of all businessmen who wear ties, wear them so tight that they actually reduce blood flow to the brain, damaging cerebral functions. At a board meeting of 20 businessmen, all of whom wear ties, what is the probability that..."

a. at least one tie is too tight?
b. more than two ties are tight?
c. no tie is too tight?
d. at least 18 ties are NOT too tight?

How in excel do I go about putting in the information (not looking for a complete handout here) in the binomial function to get the answers I need?

Hello Everyone

Long time reader, first time poster here and hopefully you may be able to help me.

I have been working on a problem that requires being able to calculate the chances of any winnng a series of coin tosses with a weighted coin.

The coin has for arguments sake a 65% / 35% chance of landing heads or tails and to win the game you need to hit your side 9 times.

Can you use excel to calculate things like: If heads takes the lead 1-0, what does that mean the its overall percentage chance of winning? If the score is 7-3 to tails, what are the chances of either side gaining victory? etc, etc.

I thought that there would be a way of setting up a spreadsheet that listed the goal (first to 9, 12, 15 or whatever) and below this the percentage chance of heads and the percentage chance of tails. Then somewhere would be a box to enter the current score (0-0, 3-5, 1-1 or whatever) and beside this the current chance of heads or tails gaining victory.

I've tried setting up something like this but am a bit of a dufus when it comes to knowing how, where and when to use the different functions of excel.

Would anyone be able to give me a hand in how to set up something like this?

Hello all. First post here and I'm looking for a little bit of help .

I've started on a project for a Prob & Stat class I have and I'm stuck trying to figure out how to display a lognormal probability distribution on a Histogram.

In the attached .xlsx on sheet "C1 HIST" you can see the random variable seeds, the loginv to get the full numbers (column C), the BIN I used for the histogram, and my attempt at the "lognormaldist" values. On sheet 3 you an see the actual commands I used to generate the numbers. I don't think I'm using the "lognormaldist" properly because the values in Column E of "C1 HIST" keep going up instead of spiking up quickly and then coming back down.

Toward the bottom of this sheet you can see what an add-in called "EasyFitXL" shows the lognormal distribution to be, but I'd like to know how to do it without an add-in.

I also attached the project statement (I'm trying to do the probability distribution part of step 2 of "Progress Report 1". Right now I'm just trying to figure out everything for Random Variable C1, and once that's done, the rest will be easy. You can also see the distribution type, CV, and Mean on the table in the .pdf (seen at the upper right of sheet "C1 HIST").

If you guys have any help/input it's be greatly, greatly appreciated.

Thanks so much!

My job requires me to establish the appropriate sample size during very expensive flight testing (i.e. can't afford to do more testing than the minimum required to establish the appropriate confidence). I have a nomograph that was given to me that we use to calculate the right value given confidence and demonstrated reliability (i.e. results). The nomograph can be found at: https://acc.dau.mil/docs/dtepi/pns/doc/nomogr/bdi.pdf.

Assuming we want to show that we have 80% confidence (right axis) that we'll succeed 80% of the time (left axis, also called reliability), I connect those values on each side with a straight edge and the chart shows that with zero failures (upper right boundary) we need 7 trials. If we have one failure (upper left boundary) the chart shows that we need 12 trials (11 successes). I was provided a formula that defines the zero failure curve [n=Log (1-confidence)/Log (reliability)]...What I need is a more generic equation or excel function that will generate these curves with failures not equal to zero.

Any statistics experts out there that can help me?

Thanks

So I have to do some baseball analysis, and have ran into a problem. I have a binomial distribution that gives me the chances that each team will win a certain number of games.

What I need to do is calculate the chances that each team will win their division. So I pretty much have to multiply every combination of percentages that results in each team having the most wins in their division.

Does anybody know if/how I can do that?

Thanks for any help.